Self-replicating devices: the statistics

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6 Responses

  1. rbisping says:

    love the data and hope the final analasis will show what occurrances in the world caused the jumps and deviations on the graph. I would assume that make magazine having the article on reprap and tommalies in 2004-2005 was one of them, and the introduction of the makerbot another but i would like to see the various dates that important news/advertising occured overlayed on the graph.

  2. Erik says:

    Overlaying it would be nice, but it’s really hard not to be subjective about. What’s a major event?

    The logarithmic growth will become more smooth over time since individual event will have less impact on overall growth. Or rather, they will have the same impact, but proportionally it is smaller and there are more such events. Imagine that as RepRap becomes bigger it will be in the mainstream media more frequently (something I’m experiencing myself since I’m frequently consulted for news articles).

    In the beginning there are some major events that are probably identifiable though, perhaps Adrian and Vik’s first replication was visible too. Still I find the staggering duplication rate of the community the most jaw-dropping. It really illustrates how big this can become! Of course we have to keep making it easier to use along with more powerful, higher-res, etc.!

    • rbisping says:

      yes, the farther we get into the project the less any single event will impact, it realy is just the first couple of years that i was curious about seeing. As for the duplication rate, it is about what i would expect to see. Reprap is a singularity technology in its infancy and is likely to become ubiquitous in one form or another.

  3. Erik says:

    On the other hand, specific structural improvements and contributions do matter a lot, if they are consolidated and keep their effect. Also, if you affect the rate of adoption and retention (such as improvements to the code and designs, extra sets of parts printed, promoting the project) this will have a major effect in absolute numbers in the long run. It affects the steepness of the exponential curve, but will not create a dent. So a single person can have a major influence in absolute numbers.

  4. The slides of our joint talk are now available. First up are Rhys Jones and Adrian Bowyer, the third section is my part:
    RepRap @ FAB6 International Conference, AmsterdamView more presentations from Erik de Bruijn.
    You can also download the original Ope

  5. Some things are just no fun, and in a project driven by volunteers, these parts tend to be neglected. Making things user friendly doesn’t help yourself, because when you get to the point where you can improve it, the improvement is of no use to you any mo