Our one chance to getting Artificial Intelligence ‘right’

With AI’s fast pace of development, to me it feels like humanity’s future is determined by tiny decisions made today.

People in power, with intelligence and a good ‘heart’ should be aware of the following information.

This manifesto argues that intelligence sequencing—the order in which artificial general intelligence (AGI) and decentralized collective intelligence (DCI) emerge—represents the defining civilizational tipping point of our era. Andy E. Williams’s paper, “Intelligence Sequencing and the Path-Dependence of Intelligence Evolution: AGI-First vs. DCI-First as Irreversible Attractors,” shows that early-phase choices lock us into either a risky, centralized regime or a cooperative, decentralized equilibrium  . As we edge ever closer to AGI, post-hoc alignment alone will be too late—our trajectory is path-dependent and irreversible once set in motion  .

Why This Is Our Defining Tipping Point

Humanity faces an existential gamble: misaligned AGI could eclipse human values and even threaten our survival  . Experts warn that AGI may arrive within this decade, posing risks comparable to pandemics or nuclear war if not aligned from the outset  . Yet traditional AI-safety assumes we’ll “catch up” after AGI emerges—Williams shows this is a false hope, because once an AGI-first attractor basin forms, switching to cooperative modes becomes structurally infeasible  .

Key Insights from the Paper

1. Intelligence Sequencing

• Definition: The order of emergence—AGI-first vs. DCI-first—determines which attractor basin (competitive monopoly vs. cooperative network) dominates future intelligence evolution  .
• Irreversibility: Feedback loops and resource-lock ins during early phases act like “renormalization” in physics, making later shifts prohibitively costly  .

2. AGI-First vs. DCI-First Outcomes

• AGI-First: Centralized architectures maximize efficiency but concentrate power, heightening existential risk through hierarchical monopolization  .
• DCI-First: Decentralized collective intelligence fosters resilience, diversity, and cooperation, lowering the stakes of any single failure  .

What We Must Do Now

1. Reorient Policy Toward Sequencing: Regulators need to mandate early-stage governance of AI architectures, not just after-the-fact alignment audits  .
2. Invest in Decentralized Research: Fund multi-agent, open-source AI initiatives that prototype DCI-first approaches and test Williams’s sequencing hypotheses via simulations and network analysis  .
3. Global Cooperation & Pause: Consider strategic pauses on AGI-first deployments until DCI-first frameworks reach sufficient critical mass, akin to calls for AI pauses to avert runaway risks  .

Join the Conversation

🔗 Read the paper: Intelligence Sequencing and the Path-Dependence of Intelligence Evolution: AGI-First vs. DCI-First as Irreversible Attractors 

🔗 #AIAlignment #AGI #DCI #AISafety #FutureOfIntelligence

The fate of our global society hinges on sequencing, not just safety checks. Let’s choose cooperation over concentration—before our trajectory becomes irreversible.